This Tuesday CMS’s Office of the Actuary released a report estimating the financial and market impact of the AHCA as passed by the House of Representatives in May. This analysis presents a much more optimistic assessment of the proposed legislation than that completed in May by the Congressional Budget Office, which forecasted 24 million newly uninsured under the AHCA and a reduction of federal spending by $119 billion over the next decade. In contrast, CMS forecasts nearly half the number of newly uninsured (12.6 million) and more than twice the amount in federal savings ($328 billion) over the same time period.
The disparity between the two assessments is primarily based on a difference in underlying assumptions regarding the efficacy of the proposed cost-saving measures. CMS’s analysis also fails to account for the impact of the proposed tax cuts, which Health Affair’s Timothy Jost points out, given that their analysis “foresees much smaller cuts in expenditures…could increase rather than decrease the deficit.”
We will continue to monitor this continuing debate and keep you updated as events progress.
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